1999 New Brunswick general election

1999 New Brunswick general election
← outgoing members members →
55 seats of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick ; 28 seats were needed for a majority
Turnout	75.59%
	Map of New Brunswick's ridings coloured in based on the winning parties and their popular vote
Premier before election; Camille Thériault; Liberal	Premier after election ; Bernard Lord; Progressive Conservative

Rendition of party representation in the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election.
  Progressive Conservatives (44)

  Liberals (10)

  New Democrats (1)

The 1999 New Brunswick general election was held on June 7, 1999, to elect 55 members to the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

Campaign

The election marked the debut of both Camille Thériault and Bernard Lord as leaders of the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives respectively. It was Elizabeth Weir's third general election as leader of the New Democratic Party.

Thériault's Liberals were widely expected to win a fourth majority government from the outset of the campaign, and opinion polls showed them leading by double but Lord's Tories were able to capitalize on the issue of highway tolls and use it to portray the Liberals as arrogant. Lord made an effective wedge issue on tolls, saying they were unfair to people who lived near the toll booths and had to drive through them daily and also as an example of arrogance and uncaring from the Liberals. Lord then pledged to implement 20 of his key promises in his first 200 days in office, he styled this as "200 Days of Change", a message which was modelled on the Contract with America and the Common Sense Revolution, and it resonated with voters. Another disadvantage for the Liberals was the loss of former premier Frank McKenna, who had retired after 10 years in office in 1997. McKenna was very popular and Thériault had difficulty shaking negative comparisons between himself and his predecessor.

Following a huge surge in the final weeks of the campaign, Lord became Premier with his party winning its largest majority in the history of New Brunswick. Lord's tories also won the majority of Acadian seats, something the PC Party in New Brunswick had struggled to do in the past.

Lord's win was 44 of 55 seats, at 80% a huge majority, was viewed as remarkable by all parties. Thériault, who came off in the campaign as cold and uncharismatic, made what pundits thought was his best speech of the campaign on election night when he said "the people of New Brunswick have spoken, and the people of New Brunswick are never wrong". However, Lord's massive victory caused a domino effect which resulted in the defeat of many Liberals who had been viewed by pundits as undefeatable.

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source	NBPC	NBLA	NBNDP	CoR	Other	ME	Sample
Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source						ME	Sample
Election 1999	June 7, 1999		53.0	37.3	8.8	0.7	0.2
Omnifacts	June 1999	^[2]	49	40	7	—	—	3.2	901
Léger	May 26, 1999	^[3]	33	46	15	—	—	3.9	603
Omnifacts	May 1999	^[4]	46	39	13	1.5	—	3.6	779
Omnifacts	May 1999	^[5]	45	37	13	1	—	3.6	850
Baseline Market Research	May 1999	^[5]	36.8	46.7	14.9	1.6	—	3.5	443
	May 11, 1999	^[6]	33	51	10	—	6	4.8	—
Corporate Research Associates	March 1999	^[7]	28	51	8	—	—	4.9	—
Baseline Market Research	January 13, 1999	^[8]	32	51	14	3	—	4.5	500
Corporate Research Associates	November 30, 1998	^[9]	25	51	13	—	—	3.4	806
Corporate Research Associates	August 24, 1998	^[10]	20	56	14	—	—	4.9	405
Corporate Research Associates	June 1998	^[11]	21	49	19	—	—	3.4	402
Corporate Research Associates	February 24, 1998	^[12]	30	43	20	—	—	3.0	800
Election 1995	September 11, 1995		30.87	51.63	9.65	7.11	0.75

Riding-specific polls

Moncton East by-election

Evolution of voting intentions at provincial level
Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source	NBPC	NBLA	NBNDP	CoR	ME	Sample
Polling firm	Last day of survey	Source					ME	Sample
By-election 1998	October 19, 1998		50.93	39.73	9.34	—
SES Canada Research	October 14, 1998	^[13]	49	40	11	—	5.7	301
Election 1995	September 11, 1995		18.02	61.80	11.82	8.36

Summary of results

Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	Seats				Popular Vote
Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	1995	Dissolution	Elected	% Change	#	%	Change
	Progressive Conservative	Bernard Lord	55	6	9	44	+289%	209,008	53.0%	+22.1%
	Liberal	Camille Theriault	55	48	45	10	-77%	146,934	37.3%	-14.3%
	New Democratic	Elizabeth Weir	55	1	1	1	-	34,526	8.8%	-0.9%
	Confederation of Regions	Jim Webb	18	-	-	-	-	2,807	0.7%	-6.4%
	Natural Law	Christopher Collrin	9	-	-	-	-	527	0.1%	-0.2%
	Independents	n/a	4	-	-	-	-	435	0.1%	-0.3%
Total			196	55	55	55	-	394,237	100%	+1.2%

Popular vote

PC			53.02%
Liberal			37.27%
New Democratic			8.76%
Conf. of Regions			0.71%
Others			0.24%

Seats summary

PC			80.00%
Liberal			18.18%
New Democratic			1.82%

Narrow wins and losses

A lot of Liberals, many high profile, lost their seats by very narrow margins while some barely survived. Below is a list of the 14 ridings (over a quarter of all districts) decided by less than 10%. Incumbent Liberal cabinet ministers are in bold, other incumbents are in italics.

Riding			Margin
Dieppe-Memramcook	Cy LeBlanc	Greg O'Donnell	4.4%
Fredericton North	D. Peter Forbes	Brad Woodside	4.4%
Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak	Eric MacKenzie	Greg Byrne	4.1%
Fundy Isles	Eric Allaby	Ed Brine	2.2%
Grand Falls Region	Jean-Guy Laforest	Marcel Deschênes	5.8%
Grand Lake	David Jordan	Doug Tyler	6.9%
Kent South	Camille Thériault	Jean-Noel Allain	7.4%
Nepisiguit	Joel Bernard	Alban Landry	4.7%
Nigadoo-Chaleur	Roland Haché	Hermel Vienneau	7.5%
Restigouche West	Benoit Cyr	Jean-Paul Savoie	3.7%
Rogersville-Kouchibouguac	Rose-May Poirier	Maurice Richard	1.8%
Saint John Champlain	Carole Keddy	Roly MacIntyre	2.2%
Victoria-Tobique	Larry Kennedy	Carman Pirie	5.8%
Western Charlotte	Tony Huntjens	Peter Heelis	6.1%

Candidates

Party leaders and cabinet ministers are denoted in bold.

Northern New Brunswick

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
Electoral district	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other		Incumbent
1. Restigouche West		Jean-Paul Savoie 3,328		Benoît Cyr 3,592		Rose Duguay 255				Jean-Paul Savoie
2. Campbellton		Edmond Blanchard 4,321		Pierre F. Dubé 2,569		Johanne Parent 295				Edmond Blanchard
3. Dalhousie-Restigouche East		Carolle de Ste. Croix 2,830		Dennis Furlong 5,148		Joel William Hickey 190		Francine Richard (NLP) withdrawn		Carolle de Ste. Croix
4. Nigadoo-Chaleur		Roland Haché 3,435		Hermel Vienneau 2,862		Raoul Charest 1,244		Gilles Godin (NLP) 106		Albert Doucet
5. Bathurst		Marcelle Mersereau 3,418		Bob Stairs 2,427		Antoine Duguay 453				Marcelle Mersereau
6. Nepisiguit		Alban Landry 2,227		Joel Bernard 2,534		Gilles Halley 1,824				Alban Landry
7. Caraquet		Bernard Theriault 4,194		Gaston Moore 3,369		Denis Doiron 596				Bernard Theriault
8. Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou		Jean-Camille DeGrâce 2,563		Paul Robichaud 5,910		Calixte Chaisson 368				Jean-Camille DeGrâce
9. Centre-Péninsule		Denis Landry 2,097		Louis-Philippe McGraw 3,045		Roger Duguay 955				Denis Landry
10. Tracadie-Sheila		Serge Rousselle 2,926		Elvy Robichaud 5,453		Claudette Duguay 285				Elvy Robichaud

Eastern New Brunswick

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
Electoral district	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other		Incumbent
11. Miramichi Bay		Danny Gay 3,066		Réjean Savoie 4,014		Donald D. Doucet 365				Danny Gay
12. Miramichi-Bay du Vin		James Doyle 3,076		Michael Malley 5,393		John Gagnon 147				James Doyle
13. Miramichi Centre		John McKay 2,975		Kim Jardine 4,076		Terry Mullin 853				John McKay
14. Southwest Miramichi		Reg MacDonald 2,850		Norman Betts 4,019		Terry Carter 254				Reg MacDonald
15. Rogersville-Kouchibouguac		Maurice Richard 2,700		Rose-May Poirier 2,820		Maria Daigle 1,197				Kenneth Johnson
16. Kent		Shawn Graham 3,264		Valmond Daigle 2,471		Charles Richard 402		J.R. Beers (Ind) 103		Shawn Graham
17. Kent South		Camille Thériault 4,546		Jean-Noël Allain 3,838		Collette Doucette 1,171				Camille Thériault
18. Shediac-Cap-Pélé		Bernard Richard 5,422		Odette Babineau 3,240		Anne Marie Dupuis 633				Bernard Richard

Southeastern New Brunswick

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
Electoral district	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other		Incumbent
19. Tantramar		Kirk W. Meldrum 925		Peter Mesheau 3,311		Heather Patterson 990		Frank Comeau (Ind) 47		Peter Mesheau
20. Dieppe-Memramcook		Greg O'Donnell 4,738		Cy LeBlanc 5,206		Marc LeBel 754				Greg O'Donnell
21. Moncton East		Kevin John Fram 2,046		Bernard Lord 5,248		Marc Robar 542		Laurent Maltais (NLP) 59		Bernard Lord
22. Moncton South		James E. Lockyer 2,710		Joan MacAlpine 3,143		Theresa Sullivan 687				James E. Lockyer
23. Moncton North		Gene Devereux 2,304		René Landry 3,776		Nancy Hartling 1049		John Gallant (CoR) 103		Gene Devereux
24. Moncton Crescent		Kenneth R. MacLeod 2,233		John Betts 4,825		Carl Fowler 699		Albert H. Wood (CoR) 85		Kenneth R. MacLeod
25. Petitcodiac		Gary Stewart Armstrong 1,171		Wally Stiles 4,284		Blair McInnis 447		Donald R. Alward (CoR) 278		Hollis Steeves
26. Riverview		Al J. Kavanaugh 2,151		Pat Crossman 4,439		Brad Smith 888		Shane Harvey (CoR) 137 Jamie Ed Borden (Ind) 81		Al J. Kavanaugh
27. Albert		Harry Doyle 2,065		Wayne Steeves 3,633		Myrna Geldart 529		Dean Ryder (CoR) 136		Harry Doyle
28. Kings East		LeRoy Armstrong 2,420		Doug Cosman 4,310		Jessica Coleman 354		Eldon MacKay (CoR) 109		LeRoy Armstrong

Greater Saint John & Fundy Coast

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
Electoral district	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other		Incumbent
29. Hampton-Belleisle		Georgie Day 2,628		Bev Harrison 4,551		Jocelyne Comeau 769				Georgie Day
30. Kennebecasis		Peter LeBlanc 2,388		Brenda Fowlie 4,070		Albert Charles Joseph Comeau 939		Greg Boyle (CoR) 192		Peter LeBlanc
31. Saint John-Fundy		Stuart Jamieson 1,933		Rodney Weston 3,473		Robert E. Holmes-Lauder 494		David Lytle (CoR) 115		Stuart Jamieson
32. Saint John-Kings		Zita Longobardi 1,752		Margaret-Ann Blaney 4,605		Ken Wilcox 664				Laureen Jarrett
33. Saint John Champlain		Roly MacIntyre 1,949		Carole Keddy 2,073		Dr. Paula C. Tippett 1,597		Dolores H. Cook (CoR) 98 Jeanne Geldart (NLP) 36		Roly MacIntyre
34. Saint John Harbour		Mark Thomas McNulty 1,347		Tim Clarke 1,349		Elizabeth Weir 2,398		Thomas Mitchell (NLP) 54		Elizabeth Weir
35. Saint John Portland		Leo McAdam 1,668		Trevor Holder 3,773		Pam F. Coates 844		Miville Couture (NLP) 45		Leo McAdam
36. Saint John Lancaster		Jane Barry 2,190		Norm McFarlane 3,999		Bill Farren 945		Jim Webb (CoR) 154 Christopher B. Collrin (NLP) 96		Jane Barry
37. Grand Bay-Westfield		Grace Losier 1,433		Milt Sherwood 3,546		Percy Ward 490		Colby Fraser (CoR) 240		Milt Sherwood
38. Charlotte		Sheldon Lee 3,263		Sharon Tucker 2,071		Eugene A. Dugas 299				Sheldon Lee
39. Fundy Isles		Eric Allaby 1,248		Ed Brine 1,192		Bill Barteau 66				Eric Allaby
40. Western Charlotte		Peter Heelis 3,071		Tony Huntjens 3,490		Andrew Gordon Graham 283				Ann Breault

Greater Fredericton

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
Electoral district	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other		Incumbent
41. Oromocto-Gagetown		Ron Lindala 2,059		Jody Carr 4,372		Terry John Hovey 283		Paul Pye (CoR) 151		Vaughn Blaney
42. Grand Lake		Doug Tyler 3,245		David Charles Jordan 3,769		Phyllis MacLean 384		Murray C. Barton (CoR) 223		Doug Tyler
43. Fredericton North		Brad Woodside 3,698		D. Peter Forbes 4,081		Todd Joseph Tingley 632		Ronald Bubar (CoR) 203 William Parker (NLP) 34		Jim Wilson
44. Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak		Greg Byrne 2,685		Eric MacKenzie 2,949		Pat A. Kennedy 715		David Alexander Brown (CoR) 96 Andie Haché (NLP) 31		Greg Byrne
45. Fredericton South		Lorraine Siliphant 2,510		Brad Green 4,070		Myrna Gunter 1,409		Michael McKay (NLP) 66		Brad Green
46. New Maryland		Joan Kingston 3,077		Keith Ashfield 4,223		Carol E. Moore 441		George Rennick (CoR) 182		Joan Kingston
47. York		John Flynn 3,783		Don Kinney 4,332		Josh Johnson 449		Malcolm MacNeil (CoR) 88		John Flynn
48. Mactaquac		David Olmstead 2,385		Kirk MacDonald 4,405		Sandra Burtt 463		Wilmot F. Ross (CoR) 217		David Olmstead

Upper Saint John River Valley

Electoral district	Candidates								Incumbent
Electoral district	Liberal		PC		NDP		Other		Incumbent
49. Woodstock		James W. Andow 1,989		David Alward 5,354		Sheila Moore 242				Bruce Atherton Smith
50. Carleton		David Harvey 3,240		Dale Graham 4,561		Marilyn Young 176				Dale Graham
51. Victoria-Tobique		Larry Kennedy 3,127		Carmen Cecil Pirie 2,768		Amy Dunham 144		Carter Charles Edgar (Ind) 204		Larry Kennedy
52. Grand Falls Region		Marcel Deschênes 3,094		Jean-Guy Laforest 3,493		Jean-Paul Gallant 265				Paul Duffie
53. Madawaska-la-Vallée		Huguette Plourde 1,798		Percy Mockler 4,367		Jean-Charles Lombard 189				Percy Mockler
54. Edmundston		Roland Beaulieu 2,173		Madeleine Dubé 3,567		Michael Gagné 366				Bernard Valcourt
55. Madawaska-les-Lacs		Georges Corriveau 2,138		Jeannot Volpé 4,289		Marie-Pierre Valay-Nadeau 154				Jeannot Volpé

References

^ "Provincial Election Results - Elections NB". February 5, 2014.
^ Cox, Kevin (June 7, 1999). "Liberal 'cakewalk' looks more like an uphill climb: New Brunswick election is too close to call though Theriault at first looked certain to win". The Globe and Mail. p. A7.
^ Cox, Kevin (June 1, 1999). "Polls suggest N.B. Liberals in tough fight with Tories: Conservatives say results have given new energy to campaign; Grits believe team now working harder to win June 7 vote". The Globe and Mail. p. A11.
^ "New Brunswick: Tories take lead in polls". The Times Colonist. May 29, 1999. p. A9.
^ ^a ^b Poitras, Jacques (May 29, 1999). "Poll gives PCs first lead since Hatfield". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.
^ Cox, Kevin (June 18, 1999). "New Brunswick Tory Leader calls for tax cuts Lord tries to cut Liberals' lead by arguing that high provincial rates drive away doctors and nurses". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.
^ "Liberals' popularity up slightly: poll". The Telegraph Journal. March 9, 1999.
^ White, Alan (January 21, 1999). "Pollster finds Liberals are main choice". The Telegraph Journal.
^ Hrabluk, Lisa; Veniot, Andre (December 8, 1998). "Liberal popularity dips in latest poll". The Telegraph Journal.
^ Veniot, Andre (September 2, 1998). "Liberals' approval rating jumps". The Telegraph Journal.
^ Goguen, Giselle (June 13, 1998). "Theriault should wait to call election, poll indicates". The Telegraph Journal.
^ Richardson, Don (May 29, 1999). "Poll tracks steady Liberal decline". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.
^ Hrabluk, Lisa (October 17, 1998). "Moncton East going down to the wire: poll". The Telegraph Journal.

[1] "Provincial Election Results - Elections NB". February 5, 2014.

[2] Cox, Kevin (June 7, 1999). "Liberal 'cakewalk' looks more like an uphill climb: New Brunswick election is too close to call though Theriault at first looked certain to win". The Globe and Mail. p. A7.

[May99-3] Cox, Kevin (June 1, 1999). "Polls suggest N.B. Liberals in tough fight with Tories: Conservatives say results have given new energy to campaign; Grits believe team now working harder to win June 7 vote". The Globe and Mail. p. A11.

[4] "New Brunswick: Tories take lead in polls". The Times Colonist. May 29, 1999. p. A9.

[Telegraph99-5] Poitras, Jacques (May 29, 1999). "Poll gives PCs first lead since Hatfield". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.

[6] Cox, Kevin (June 18, 1999). "New Brunswick Tory Leader calls for tax cuts Lord tries to cut Liberals' lead by arguing that high provincial rates drive away doctors and nurses". The Globe and Mail. p. A4.

[7] "Liberals' popularity up slightly: poll". The Telegraph Journal. March 9, 1999.

[8] White, Alan (January 21, 1999). "Pollster finds Liberals are main choice". The Telegraph Journal.

[9] Hrabluk, Lisa; Veniot, Andre (December 8, 1998). "Liberal popularity dips in latest poll". The Telegraph Journal.

[10] Veniot, Andre (September 2, 1998). "Liberals' approval rating jumps". The Telegraph Journal.

[11] Goguen, Giselle (June 13, 1998). "Theriault should wait to call election, poll indicates". The Telegraph Journal.

[12] Richardson, Don (May 29, 1999). "Poll tracks steady Liberal decline". The Telegraph Journal. p. A1.

[13] Hrabluk, Lisa (October 17, 1998). "Moncton East going down to the wire: poll". The Telegraph Journal.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

v t e Elections and referendums in New Brunswick
General elections	1785 1793 1795 1802 1809 1816 1819 1820 1827 1830 1835 1837 1843 1846 1850 1854 1856 1857 1861 1865 1866 1870 1874 1878 1882 1886 1890 1892 1895 1899 1903 1908 1912 1917 1920 1925 1930 1935 1939 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1963 1967 1970 1974 1978 1982 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 2024
Municipal elections	2004 2008 2012 2016 2021
Referendums	1967 2001
See also: List of New Brunswick by-elections